San Francisco North Bay Industrial Market Report
By CREhunt Research · Data through Q1 2026 · Aggregated from Cushman & Wakefield, Colliers, CBRE
Quarterly industrial market indicators for San Francisco North Bay, aggregated by CREhunt from Cushman & Wakefield, Colliers, CBRE. As of Q1 2026, average asking rent was $15.00/SF/yr and vacancy was 5.8%, per Cushman & Wakefield.
Projected current industrial pricing — San Francisco North Bay
Modeled estimate (income approach) shown as a range — not an appraisal. No market-specific cap rate is published for San Francisco North Bay industrial yet, so this applies the typical cap rate across comparable industrial markets — treat it as a rough, indicative range that sharpens as sourced cap rates arrive. Projected asking rent × occupancy × net-operating-income margin band ÷ a benchmark cap rate, from Q1 2026 Cushman & Wakefield asking-rent data (benchmark cap rate 5.5%–7.5%, asking rent held flat). Assumes ~94% occupancy and a 72–88% net-operating-income margin.
| Quarter | Asking rent | Vacancy | Net absorption | Under constr. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Cushman & Wakefield | $15.00/SF/yr | 5.8% | -5K SF | — | Cushman & Wakefield |
| Q1 2026 Colliers | — | 2.6% | 4.9M SF | — | Colliers |
| Q1 2026 CBRE | $23.88/SF/yr | 5.4% | 190K SF | — | CBRE |
| Q3 2025 Cushman & Wakefield | $14.88/SF/yr | 16.6% | — | — | Cushman & Wakefield |
| Q1 2025 Cushman & Wakefield | — | 6.6% | 0 SF | — | Cushman & Wakefield |
| Q3 2023 Colliers | — | 7.2% | 952K SF | — | Colliers |
| Q3 2021 Colliers | $19.44/SF/yr | — | 87K SF | — | Colliers |
Industrial asking rents by submarket
The newest asking rent a named brokerage's report published for each San Francisco North Bay industrial submarket, with its publisher and quarter. Submarkets whose newest figure cannot be attributed, or falls outside a plausible range, are left out.
| Submarket | Asking rent | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Madera/Larkspur Central San Rafael | $1.95/SF/mo Cushman & Wakefield · Q1 2026 | Cushman & Wakefield, Q1 2026 |
| North San Rafael | $1.54/SF/mo Cushman & Wakefield · Q1 2026 | Cushman & Wakefield, Q1 2026 |
| Novato | $1.29/SF/mo Cushman & Wakefield · Q1 2026 | Cushman & Wakefield, Q1 2026 |
| Petaluma | $1.24/SF/mo Cushman & Wakefield · Q1 2026 | Cushman & Wakefield, Q1 2026 |
| Rohnert Park | $1.25/SF/mo Cushman & Wakefield · Q1 2026 | Cushman & Wakefield, Q1 2026 |
| Santa Rosa | $1.42/SF/mo Cushman & Wakefield · Q1 2026 | Cushman & Wakefield, Q1 2026 |
| Sausalito/Mill Valley | $2.96/SF/mo Cushman & Wakefield · Q1 2026 | Cushman & Wakefield, Q1 2026 |
| Sonoma/Sebastopol/Graton | $1.28/SF/mo Cushman & Wakefield · Q1 2026 | Cushman & Wakefield, Q1 2026 |
How the brokerage sources compare
For Q1 2026, the brokerages CREhunt aggregates for San Francisco North Bay industrial did not fully agree. On vacancy, the sources span 3.2 points — from 2.6% (Colliers) to 5.8% (Cushman & Wakefield). Asking-rent estimates differ by $8.88/SF/yr — from $15.00/SF/yr to $23.88/SF/yr. CREhunt reconciles these into a single consensus median rather than relying on any one brokerage.
| Source | Vacancy | Asking rent | Cap rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colliers | 2.6% | — | — |
| CBRE | 5.4% | $23.88/SF/yr | — |
| Cushman & Wakefield | 5.8% | $15.00/SF/yr | — |
Per-brokerage figures for Q1 2026, aggregated from published brokerage market reports.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the average asking rent for industrial space in San Francisco North Bay?
- As of Q1 2026, the average asking rent for industrial space in San Francisco North Bay was $15.00/SF/yr, per Cushman & Wakefield.
- What is the industrial vacancy rate in San Francisco North Bay?
- The industrial vacancy rate in San Francisco North Bay was 5.8% as of Q1 2026 (Cushman & Wakefield).
- Where does CREhunt's San Francisco North Bay market data come from?
- This report aggregates quarterly industrial market data for San Francisco North Bay from Cushman & Wakefield, Colliers, CBRE.
- How much do brokerage estimates differ for industrial space in San Francisco North Bay?
- For Q1 2026, the brokerage sources CREhunt aggregates for San Francisco North Bay did not fully agree. On vacancy, the sources span 3.2 points — from 2.6% (Colliers) to 5.8% (Cushman & Wakefield). Asking-rent estimates differ by $8.88/SF/yr — from $15.00/SF/yr to $23.88/SF/yr. CREhunt reconciles these into a single consensus median rather than relying on any one brokerage.